Is the toilet paper apocalypse upon us again?

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Standing in line at a CVS Pharmacy, I got a lesson in how panic buying spreads. A couple toward the front of the line were holding jumbo packages of paper towels and toilet paper as they waited to pick up a prescription. They turned to those of us behind them and said they’d heard that the International Longshoremen’s Association strike, which was scheduled to begin that night, was going to cause toilet paper shortages. “Stock up, just in case,” they advised.
That prompted a conversation about the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, still fresh in everyone’s mind. And almost everyone — myself included — somewhat sheepishly picked up a 12-pack of toilet paper off the display in the pharmacy, whether we needed it or not. And that, in a nutshell, is why people are reporting that in some spots there is no toilet paper on shelves less than a week after the strike began.
It’s not the strike — it’s the social contagion.
Almost all of toilet paper Americans buy is made in the U.S. and transported by trucks or trains, so your Charmin Ultra Soft isn’t sitting on container ships outside idle East Coast ports. In fact, CNN reported, it’s people outside of the United States who count on American products who are more likely to have a toilet-paper shortage in the coming months.
That said, it doesn’t really matter to consumers why a shortage occurs when shelves are empty. And a professor at North Carolina State notes that there is an international component to U.S. toilet paper — eucalyptus pulp, imported from Brazil.
“If it takes one or two weeks for the strike to end, there could be delays that affect raw materials used to produce toilet paper,” said Ronalds Gonzalez, an associate professor in the Department of Forest Biomaterials at NC State and co-director of the Tissue Pack Innovation Lab, told Andrew Moore of the university’s College of Natural Resources News.
So a lengthy strike could result in delays in production of your preferred brand. Even if that’s case, commercial-grade toilet paper made from recycled materials would likely still be available, as it was during the first year of the pandemic, Gonzalez said. But now, as then, it’s the panic buying that’s causing shelves to empty this week.
Writing about the longshoremen’s strike for Slate, Nitish Pahwah noted that steps had been taken in advance of the strike to minimize the effect on consumers — with some ships redirected to the West Coast and container ships being unloaded before the strike began. In addition, the strike had been threatened for months, so many retailers had stocked up on nonperishable supplies in advance.
“Still, the nervousness is understandable, since most coverage of this strike has been framed around the potential economic impact, all the more compounded by the impending presidential election. Lots of perishable goods come through the now-closed ports, like bananas, soybeans, poultry, and alcohol. (Most other food sources, like grains, should be fine.) And independent truckers who transport goods from the shores understandably worry about their livelihood,” Pahwah wrote.
Compounding consumer worries on the East Coast is the devastation from Hurricane Helene. Per Fox Carolina, “Grocery stores must dispose of compromised food following a power outage. However, some grocery stores are having trouble with disposal due to local landfills being closed. They cannot restock until they remove the compromised food products.”
Also, sections of Interstates 40 and 26 are closed in the South because of storm damage, affecting the routes of some trucks carrying food and other supplies. North Carolina officials are saying that one stretch of I-40 may not reopen for a year.
University of South Carolina economist Joseph Von Nessen told Live 5 News in the port city of Charleston, S.C., that after 2-3 weeks of a strike, consumers may see shortages and higher prices. “It takes longer to unwind these disruptions than it did to create them in the first place,” Von Nessen said.
No one is predicting how long the strike will last, but CBS reported that even if the strike just lasts three weeks, it might be January before operations are back to normal.
So, what, if anything should consumers be stocking up on? Two things that are staples of many families: bananas and ground beef.
Bananas are the most popular fresh fruit in the U.S., and most of our supplies come from Central and South America on container ships. With a shelf life of about a week, they’re hard to stockpile, although you can freeze them.
And beef and poultry from outside the U.S. will be affected, Reuters reported — with hamburger prices at fast-food restaurants likely to go up. Per Reuters: “More than 50 container ships were already anchored or loitering off dozens of East Coast and Gulf ports as of early Wednesday, compared to just three on Sunday before the strike, according to Reuters shipping data and Everstream Analytics.”
Other items that will be affected if the strike goes on are seafood, coffee, and fruits and vegetables grown outside the U.S., per CBS, as well as chocolate and alcohol. There also might be delays in shipments of new cars.
So, while no, it’s not 2020 again, it might feel a bit like it at times in the coming month — but while you’re searching for toilet paper and bananas, at least you would be required to wear a mask.